Treasury Twist: Was Scott Bessent Right After All
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/treasury-twist-was-scott-bessent-right-after-all/
On August 19, 2026, the US Treasury Department announced that it was doubling the size of its “liquidity support” for long-dated US Treasuries from USD 2 billion to USD 4 billion per operation. The news ...
Is a Recession Coming Soon
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/is-a-recession-coming-soon/
Is a recession coming? It’s a question that matters for traders and investors alike, and a 25-year chart of US labor data gives us a good place to start looking for an answer. Below is ...
EURUSD Forecast 2026: Why 1.10 Is Next
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/eurusd-forecast-2026-why-1-10-is-next/
EURUSD has climbed to levels that appear stretched relative to its long-term fair value. Using a 48-month Bollinger Band model and comparing US and German breakeven inflation rates, this EURUSD forecast argues that the pair is ...
S&P 500 Sector Performance: Mid-Year Review ’26
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/sp500-sector-performance-2026/
At mid-year, the S&P 500’s 11 sectors show clear differences in valuation, earnings strength, and investor expectations. Using data from State Street Global Advisors, we assess which sectors offer genuine relative value, which appear fairly ...
US Treasuries: Mid-Year 2026 Update
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/us-treasuries-mid-year-2026-update/
We’ve written before about our positive stance on US Treasuries, most recently in our May 20 blog, “US Bond Market Outlook May 2026.” Clients and colleagues keep asking whether that view has changed. So we ...
Middle East Crisis 2.0: Is the conflict back on
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/middle-east-crisis-oil-outlook/
The Middle East crisis is back in the headlines, and the news over the past week has been bad. The US and Iran have both said the Memorandum of Understanding that settled the conflict, signed ...
Japanese Yen Outlook – The Trade Is Turning
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/japanese-yen-outlook-the-trade-is-turning/
I have to admit that some of the inspiration for these blogs comes from ordinary conversations. It was probably several months ago that a friend of mine told me he was going on a vacation ...
Fed Rate Hike 2026: What Breakeven Inflation Is Telling Us
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/fed-rate-hike-2026-what-breakeven-inflation-is-telling-us/
First, we will start with an obvious fact: following the onset of the Iran-US conflict, the US economy, along with most other world economies, experienced a surge in inflation. As a result, there came rising ...
Trading ETFs On Leverage vs Trading Leveraged ETFs
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/trading-on-leverage-vs-trading-leveraged-etfs/
Leveraged ETFs and the Myths Around Leverage Investing Many investors misunderstand how leverage works in practice — and leveraged ETFs in particular are often misread. Below, we break down three of the most common misconceptions. ...
How to Pick an ETF: A 6-Step Practical Guide
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/how-to-pick-an-etf-a-6-step-practical-guide/
We previously wrote in our blog series, Market Insights, about how to pick stocks, bonds, and options. Based on the strong readership those articles received, we decided to expand the series with a practical guide ...