US Bond Market Outlook May 2026
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/us-bond-market-outlook-may-2026/
We have written positively about bonds before, most recently in October 2025. However, the war in the Middle East has increased inflation expectations for 2026. As a result, we decided to take another look — ...
The Big Short: Who Is the Smartest Guy
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/the-big-short-who-is-the-smartest-guy/
If you have seen The Big Short, this post will land differently. If not, watching it or at least reading the plot is worth the twenty minutes. A quick recap: The Big Short follows three ...
UAE Exit from OPEC: What It Changes and What It Doesn’t
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/uae-exit-opec-2026/
The UAE exit from OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, marks the most consequential departure from the cartel in years, but its impact is more gradual than dramatic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ...
What Markets Are Pricing Into US Government Debt
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/what-markets-are-pricing-into-us-government-debt/
How worried should investors really be about US government debt? At first glance, the numbers justify the alarm. US debt-to-GDP has risen from around 100% before COVID to approximately 123% by the end of 2025. ...
Space X IPO: No, Thank You
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/space-x-ipo-no-thank-you/
The SpaceX IPO has been one of the most anticipated public offerings in recent memory, and it may finally be approaching. Recent announcements suggest the IPO for Space X could happen as early as June ...
S&P 500 PE Ratio: Is It Time to Look Elsewhere
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/sp-500-pe-ratio-is-it-time-to-look-elsewhere/
The S&P 500 PE ratio is sitting at 26 — roughly 30% above the global average. For passive investors, this is increasingly hard to ignore. A large portion of passive capital is concentrated in S&P ...
Price of oil and Inflation: It’s complicated
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/price-of-oil-and-inflation-its-complicated/
First Order Effect: Higher Inflation The crisis in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and the dominant narrative is that this could reignite inflation. This is the so-called first-order, or direct, effect. Transportation ...
How Gulf Markets Are Pricing Middle East Conflict
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/how-gulf-markets-are-pricing-middle-east-conflict/
Why the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait Markets Are Moving Differently The Middle East conflict has dominated financial news over the past month, and understandably so. Oil remains one of the world’s most critical ...
Global Recession 2026: What to Expect
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/global-recession-2026-what-to-expect/
Could a Global Recession in 2026 Push Markets Into Freefall If the global economy were to enter a recession in 2026, how far could equity markets realistically fall? The honest answer is that nobody knows. ...
Conflict in the Middle East: Beyond the Obvious
https://alaricsecurities.com/blog/conflict-in-the-middle-east-beyond-the-obvious/
Looking at Military Resources and Market Signals The conflict in the Middle East creates significant uncertainty for markets and policymakers. When tensions escalate, many assume that anything can happen. However, markets constantly interpret available information. ...