Anthropic IPO – What Do We Know So Far

The Anthropic IPO moved a step closer in June, when Anthropic PBC (a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation, commonly referred to as Anthropic) confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC – one of the steps necessary in order to become public. In late September, the details of that draft leaked to the media. We have not reviewed the actual filing; however, we assume the reported details are likely accurate. In our opinion, several things are worth noting.

What the leaked Anthropic S-1 shows

Revenue

Revenue for 2025 was around USD 4.6 Bln, while revenue for the first half of 2026 was around USD 16.5 Bln. Moreover, by the end of July, the company had reportedly reached an annualized revenue run rate of around USD 65 Bln.

Profitability. Operating loss for 2025 was around USD 8 Bln. We have not seen full guidance for 2026, but Anthropic reportedly posted an adjusted operating profit (excluding stock-based compensation) of around USD 559 Mln for Q2 alone.

Commitments.

The company disclosed financial commitments exceeding USD 518 Bln over the next 10 years, and around 80% are non-cancellable. Those commitments are very large. For comparison, the commitments to Amazon and Google alone are around USD 110 Bln each, and to Microsoft around USD 31 Bln – roughly USD 250 Bln as a group. Most of the remainder consists of equipment leases tied to Broadcom (around USD 161 Bln), along with agreements with xAI and AMD.

Anthropic IPO valuation: how does it stack up?

Those are the numbers, or at least the numbers we deem important. Now let’s compare them to the proposed valuation. In May, Anthropic raised USD 65 Bln in a private capital raise at a valuation of USD 965 Bln. The IPO valuation being pursued is rumored to be USD 2 Trln, or more than double the valuation from earlier this year.

So, how does the valuation stack up? Using the USD 65 Bln annualized revenue run rate, the Price/Sales ratio would be:

2,000 / 65 = 30.8x

How does Anthropic compare to SpaceX?

SpaceX (SPCX) became public at a Price/Sales ratio of around 90–95x its 2025 revenue. So, in that regard, the valuation may not be extremely expensive, but rather only a version of expensive. Keep in mind, though, that the two multiples are not calculated the same way. SpaceX’s is based on last year’s revenue, while Anthropic’s is based on a run rate. On 2025 revenue alone, Anthropic’s multiple would be around 435x.

Even so, a lower multiple than SpaceX’s is warranted. This is still a very young company. Its business model is exciting and its revenue growth trajectory is tremendous. At the same time, the capital commitments the company has undertaken introduce a risk that is very difficult to price.

What comes next for the Anthropic IPO

Nevertheless, those concerns arise from a leaked document that is probably true but has not been independently verified. For now, let’s note them and wait for more verifiable data from the company. It is probably going to come out soon, and we will update our view once the public S-1 is filed. In the meantime, you can read our take on other AI IPOs.

Disclaimer