Magnificent 7 Earnings: Summer 2025 Update
Spinning for Upside – Can Any MAG 7 Stock Surprise Investors?
It’s that time of year again – Summer Earnings Season 2025! While attention has recently shifted toward geopolitical developments, such as the Tariff Wars, earnings continue to be the actual engine behind long-term market moves. This is especially true for the market’s most influential companies, the Magnificent 7.
The last time we discussed Magnificent 7 earnings was on April 30th, in our article “The Best Magnificent 7 Stock to Buy.” In that post, we were spot-on in picking MSFT as the stock to buy ahead of earnings. At the time, Microsoft was trading at $395.26. As of now, it’s hovering around $513 per share, a nearly 30% gain, compared to a 15% increase in the SPY over the same period.
So the question is: could there be another breakout performer among the Magnificent 7 this earnings season?
Magnificent 7 Valuation Overview – July 2025
Before diving deeper, here’s a look at how current valuations and projected earnings growth stack up for the Magnificent 7 stocks compared to the broader market:
| Name | Sector | 2025 Forward PE | Expected Future E Growth | 2026 PE Ratio | 2027 PE Ratio | 2028 PE Ratio |
| SPY | 24,37 | 12,25% | 21,71 | 19,34 | 17,23 | |
| XLK | Technology | 31,5 | 16,41% | 27,06 | 23,25 | 19,97 |
| AAPL | Technology | 29,69 | 7,62% | 27,24 | 24,64 | 21,08 |
| AMZN | Consumer Discretionary | 37,09 | 17,61% | 31,69 | 25,75 | 21,38 |
| GOOG | Technology | 19,57 | 14,09% | 18,36 | 16,30 | 14,00 |
| META | Communications | 27,69 | 10,29% | 24,82 | 21,99 | 18,64 |
| MSFT | Technology | 38,29 | 14,90% | 33,94 | 28,94 | 24,61 |
| NVDA | Technology | 40,18 | 30,97% | 29,71 | 25,41 | 24,87 |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | 183,26 | 13,70% | 123,33 | 91,07 | 53,57 |
Where the Data Comes From
-
SPY and XLK data come directly from State Street Global Advisors.
-
Forward P/E ratios for individual Magnificent 7 stocks are sourced from Seeking Alpha.
-
Earnings growth projections are based on data from Finviz.
This allows us to make a fair comparison to the numbers presented in our previous April 2025 update.
Magnificent 7 Earnings: Then vs. Now
Here’s how valuations and expectations have shifted since April:
| Name | April 2025 Forward PE | July 2025 Forward PE | April 2025 E Growth | July 2025 E Growth | Performance since April 2025 | |
| SPY | 24,23 | 24,37 | 12,34% | 12,25% | 15,70% | |
| XLK | 25,18 | 31,5 | 16,54% | 16,41% | 25,70% | |
| AAPL | 29,01 | 29,69 | 8,87% | 7,62% | 2,20% | |
| AMZN | 30,12 | 37,09 | 18,72% | 17,61% | 22,50% | |
| GOOG | 16,85 | 19,57 | 13,38% | 14,09% | 18,40% | |
| META | 22,2 | 27,69 | 10,47% | 10,29% | 30,22% | |
| MSFT | 29,72 | 38,29 | 14,21% | 14,90% | 31,10% | |
| NVDA | 24,63 | 40,18 | 29,64% | 30,97% | 55,45% | |
| TSLA | 148,96 | 183,26 | 20,97% | 13,70% | 12,67% |
Nearly every Magnificent 7 stock has appreciated since April 2025. NVDA leads with gains over 50%, while AAPL posted only a modest 2.2% rise.
What’s consistent across the board is that most of the price appreciation is driven by multiple expansion, rather than increased earnings forecasts. Expected future earnings growth is now lower across almost all names compared to April.
What Are Analysts Saying Ahead of Earnings?
Let’s look at the analysts’ current price targets and upside potential for each of the Magnificent 7 stocks:
| Consensus Estimate Upside April 2025 | Consensus Estimate Upside July 2025 | |
| AAPL | 12.50% | 7.83% |
| AMZN | 30.50% | 8.40% |
| GOOG | 29.2% | 10.9% |
| META | 22.20% | 5.88% |
| MSFT | 25.40% | 5.96% |
| NVDA | 51% | 3.60% |
| TSLA | 1% | -2.80% |
In our experience, large-cap stocks typically trade 5–10% below consensus estimates. Based on this pattern, it appears that all Magnificent 7 stocks are currently fairly valued ahead of their earnings reports.
This doesn’t mean post-earnings gains are off the table, but it does suggest that, based on what’s currently known, there’s no obvious bargain among the group.
Our View: A Time for Caution
Yes, we’re cautious this time around.
The market has seen a strong rally, but rising earnings expectations have not been a significant factor in supporting this rally. Historically, such divergence has often preceded a correction.
Given the stretched valuations and tempered growth outlooks, we’re not buying ahead of most major earnings announcements. While we don’t rule out post-earnings surprises, we prefer to wait for better entry points or confirmation from revised guidance.
That said, just like we saw with MSFT last time, another winner could emerge from this round of Magnificent 7 earnings, and we’ll be watching closely.