Is the S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio of 25 Too High or Too Low
https://alaricsecurities.com/sp500-forward-pe-ratio-25/
Every few weeks, the same headline appears: stocks are expensive, gravity will pull them down, and the market is bound to fall. I used to believe that narrative, especially as a young trader, until I ...
Inflation Expectations vs Breakeven Rates
https://alaricsecurities.com/inflation-expectations-vs-breakeven-rates/
It seems that, one way or another, the Chairmanship of Mr. Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve will come to an end, either through his scheduled retirement within a year or sooner, if Mr. Trump has ...
Gold as a Hedge Against Inflation: Reality Check
https://alaricsecurities.com/gold-as-a-hedge-against-inflation-reality-check/
What the Numbers Say About Returns and Volatility As a trained statistician, I often get frustrated by how people misuse statistics or, worse, use them carelessly. These mistakes may look harmless, but over time, they ...
Why the Best Market Predictors Are Surprisingly Simple
https://alaricsecurities.com/why-the-best-market-predictors-are-surprisingly-simple/
The Role of Consumer Confidence in Predicting Market Trends I’ll always be grateful to my statistics professor, Ms. Carol Marchetti, who encouraged me to study statistics at the University of Rochester. That one suggestion changed ...
Magnificent 7 Earnings: Summer 2025 Update
https://alaricsecurities.com/magnificent-7-earnings-summer-2025-update/
Spinning for Upside – Can Any MAG 7 Stock Surprise Investors? It’s that time of year again – Summer Earnings Season 2025! While attention has recently shifted toward geopolitical developments, such as the Tariff Wars, ...
Platinum: The Forgotten Metal With a Bullish Setup
https://alaricsecurities.com/platinum-the-forgotten-metal-with-a-bullish-setup/
Prices are up more than 50% year-to-date, but for platinum, that rally may only be the beginning. A combination of supply deficits, rising extraction costs, and growing interest from both retail and institutional investors suggests ...
Top 5 US Stocks Wall Street Analysts Love in 2025
https://alaricsecurities.com/top-5-us-stocks-wall-street-analysts-love-in-2025/
To narrow down our list, we focused on the top 50 S&P 500 companies by market capitalization, as compiled by State Street Global Advisors. Our rationale? Larger companies tend to have more comprehensive analyst coverage, ...
Kohl’s Corp Stock: Short Sellers Eye 56% Downside
https://alaricsecurities.com/kohls-corp-stock-short-sellers-eye-56-downside/
Shorting stocks is hard, not because it’s technically complicated, but because good short setups are rare, and bad ones are punishing. We’ve learned that firsthand. After revisiting our earlier TSLA short, we’ve sharpened our criteria ...
The Iran-Israel Conflict: A DEO-Based Perspective
https://alaricsecurities.com/the-iran-israel-conflict-a-deo-based-perspective/
The Iran-Israel conflict has dominated recent headlines. We do not claim to have any unique insight into its causes or likely outcomes. However, what we can offer is our structured approach to thinking through geopolitical ...
Why Most Investors Misread Business Cycles
https://alaricsecurities.com/why-most-investors-misread-business-cycles/
The Behavioral Traps That Keep Investors From Timing Market Tops Business cycles are one of the most challenging subjects for new traders and investors to grasp. While the concept is relatively straightforward, in practice, learning ...