SpaceX Stock Is Still Expensive, and I See No Growth Catalyst

Nikolay Stoykov, Managing Partner at Alaric Securities, on Business Start, 3 August 2026

SpaceX’s share price remains too high, and I do not see a catalyst capable of reversing the trend. There are three factors that are sufficient to discourage investors from taking long positions. Moreover, Nikolay Stoykov, Managing Partner at Alaric Securities, said this on Bloomberg TV Bulgaria’s Business Start, hosted by Hristo Nikolov. 

The first factor is strong short-seller interest, with around 30% of the company’s shares currently sold short. In addition, the company has an overly complex corporate structure that makes it difficult to follow. Companies like this deserve to trade at a discount, not at a premium, Stoykov noted. The third factor is its highly unstable business plan. SpaceX has been operating for more than 20 years and is still not particularly profitable, he added. These are major concerns for those considering SpaceX stock as an investment.

The shares of Elon Musk’s company are currently trading at around $108–109. This represents a significant decline from the $135 price at the time of its initial public offering. It is important to note how these changes affect the overall perception of SpaceX stock among market participants.

“The stock could fall to between $70 and $80.”

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Microsoft added nearly half a trillion dollars to its market value on Thursday. This was the largest one-day increase ever recorded by a stock. It followed the publication of the company’s second-quarter results.

According to Stoykov, the news from Microsoft is not negative, but the company has a reputation for lagging behind in artificial intelligence. Its cloud business is performing well. However, it is unclear how long this growth can continue, he added.

Analysts are therefore divided in their views on Microsoft. Some believe the company is undervalued, while others argue that its shares do not deserve to trade above $300.

Evidence of a Bubble Among Artificial Intelligence Companies

Historically, new technologies have always produced bubbles, from the railway industry to the internet. We are now most likely experiencing an artificial intelligence bubble, the analyst said. As a result, evaluating SpaceX stock in the context of market cycles is more complicated than ever.

According to him, one indication is that valuations in the semiconductor sector are declining in terms of price-to-earnings ratios. However, earnings expectations continue to rise.

“Earnings in the sector are expected to grow by around 40% annually over the next five years, compared with a historical rate of 17%.”

However, most investors remain cautious and generally believe that these expectations will not be met, Stoykov noted.

Global Petrol and Diesel Prices Are Stabilising

Despite the increase in global oil prices, petrol and diesel prices are stabilising and have fallen to their lowest levels in three weeks, Stoykov said. Conditions in these markets are improving. This is also confirmed by the so-called crack spread, the price difference between crude oil and refined petroleum products, which indicates how profitable oil refineries are, he explained.

In his view, a resolution to the crisis in Iran may be reached soon. However, even if the crisis continues for a prolonged period without a lasting solution, markets are unlikely to return to the unstable levels seen in March.

The trends in petrol and diesel prices have not yet been reflected in Bulgaria, Stoykov acknowledged. While prices in the United States change daily, prices in Bulgaria appear to be updated only once a week. Therefore, they should begin moving lower next Monday, he said.

Lower global demand for oil is also benefiting the markets.

“2026 could be the first year in which oil demand declines without a financial crisis. Demand has fallen particularly sharply in emerging economies.”

Markets across most Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Oman and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia, are also stabilising. According to Stoykov, this could indicate that people familiar with the negotiations expect a peaceful resolution to be reached in Iran.

Nikolay Stoykov also commented on last week’s news that Schneider Electric was in talks to acquire majority stakes in the Bulgarian publicly listed “unicorn” Shelly Group. He said such a transaction could have a positive effect on Bulgarian companies seeking investors.

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