February 8, 2023 | Issue 13

The Fed is Fighting Inflation That No Longer Exists

Nikolay Stoykov
Managing Partner at Alaric Securities

 ‘Once you get burned by hot milk, you tend to blow even on yogurt’ — Turkish Proverb

On November 8th, 2022, we published a blog, ‘US Inflation in 2023 at 1.3? Is the Fed Wrong Again?’  It has been three months since that issue, so let’s revisit the data since the case.

Year Inflation M2 Velocity of M2 Total M2 Supply GDP  MS as % GDP Predicted Next Year Inflation
2002 1.59% 5772.0 1.927 11122.6 10936 101.7% 1.7%
2003 2.27% 6067.3 1.940 11770.6 11458 102.7% 2.7%
2004 2.68% 6418.3 1.958 12567.0 12214 102.9% 2.9%
2005 3.39% 6681.9 2.001 13370.5 13037 102.6% 2.6%
2006 3.23% 7071.6 1.997 14122.0 13815 102.2% 2.2%
2007 2.85% 7471.6 1.977 14771.4 14452 102.2% 2.2%
2008 3.84% 8192.1 1.813 14852.3 14713 100.9% 0.9%
2009 0.36% 8496.0 1.726 14664.1 14449 101.5% 1.5%
2010 1.64% 8801.8 1.745 15359.1 14992 102.4% 2.4%
2011 3.16% 9660.1 1.648 15919.8 15543 102.4% 2.4%
2012 2.07% 10459.7 1.586 16589.1 16197 102.4% 2.4%
2013 1.46% 11028.8 1.560 17204.9 16785 102.5% 2.5%
2014 1.62% 11681.5 1.537 17954.5 17527 102.4% 2.4%
2015 0.12% 12344.0 1.493 18429.6 18238 101.1% 1.1%
2016 1.26% 13209.6 1.441 19035.0 18745 101.5% 1.5%
2017 2.13% 13852.3 1.440 19947.3 19543 102.1% 2.1%
2018 2.44% 14358.8 1.458 20935.1 20612 101.6% 1.6%
2019 1.81% 15319.1 1.425 21829.7 21433 101.9% 1.9%
2020 1.23% 19124.7 1.146 21916.9 20893 104.9% 4.9%
2021 4.70% 21490 1.142 24541.6 22996 106.70% 6.7%
2022 6.45% 21207.4 1.225 25979.1 26132 99.4% -0.6%

What is different this time? The data for 2022 in our previous issue included data as of the end of September. We have updated ALL data with the LAST data available as of the end of December 2022.

We will go over the details of the model again but in less fact. So, the US Total Money Supply M2 at the end of 2002 (first row of the table) is 11122.6 Bln USD while the US GDP was 10936 Bln USD. This means that the Total Money Supply M2 is 101.7% of the GDP. That excess over 100% is 1.7%, which becomes the expected inflation for the following year — 2003.

In our November Issue, the data pointed to 1.3% expected inflation in 2023; however, as of the end of December 2022, the model predicts a NEGATIVE inflation of 0.6% (deflation). The forecast change is reduced M2 Supply and higher than expected US GDP growth in Q4 of 2022. It is important to note that while M2 and velocity of M2 are not expected to be adjusted, nominal GDP CAN be revised! As such, the model is ONLY as good as the data it uses…

However, we will not try to “play around” with the model, nor will we try to estimate the nominal GDP of the US better. Instead, we will look at the latest inflation data. Here is the US CPI for the last 12 months:

That is right. The narrative everywhere in the media is about inflation, but the inflation, as measured by the US CPI since Jun 2022, has yet to be practically non-existent! Let’s examine those numbers a bit further:

 Year Quarter CPI 3 Mo Change in CPI 1 Yr Change in CPI
2018 Q1 249.55
Q2 251.99 0.98%
Q3 252.44 0.18%
Q4 251.33 -0.44%
2019 Q1 254.2 1.14% 1.86%
Q2 256.14 0.76% 1.65%
Q3 256.55 0.16% 1.63%
Q4 256.97 0.16% 2.24%
2020 Q1 258.11 0.44% 1.54%
Q2 257.79 -0.12% 0.64%
Q3 260.28 0.97% 1.45%
Q4 260.47 0.07% 1.36%
2021 Q1 264.87 1.69% 2.62%
Q2 271.69 2.57% 5.39%
Q3 274.31 0.96% 5.39%
Q4 278.8 1.64% 7.04%
2022 Q1 287.5 3.12% 8.54%
Q2 296.31 3.06% 9.06%
Q3 296.8 0.17% 8.20%
Q4 296.79 0.00% 6.45%

Let’s split the period from 2018 to 2022 into two parts, period I from 2018 to 2020 and period II from 2021 to 2022. Period I is described by low inflation; annual inflation in any quarter is below 2.25%, and during every quarter, inflation is more volatile; it never exceeds 1.14% for any quarter!

Period II is quite more volatile! As predicted by our earlier model, inflation will show up in 2021 and it shows up with a bang! Quarter over Quarter inflation for ALL quarters of 2021 is averaging about 1.5%, and annual inflation for most of 2021 is CLEARLY above the stated inflation target of the Fed. Then 2022 arrives, and inflation gets entirely out of control! Some of the reasons are an overhang from the loose monetary policy of 2021, but some of it is due to the war in Ukraine. However, notably since Q2 of 2022 — there has been no inflation! Well, no inflation is a little of a stretch, but inflation for the second half of 2022 has been 0.17% or 0,34% on an annualized basis — well below the target inflation rate of the Fed!

Six months is not a significantly long enough time, but it is NOT an insignificant period either! The period is relatively short to be      saying that inflation is under control in the US conclusively. However, coupled with the increase of interest rates from nearly 0% to almost 5% in one year and the reduction of the M2 Money Supply, we see no reason why inflation would magically reappear.

The important thing here is that this is NOT just our opinion but also the market expectations — markets believe that by the end of 2024, the Fed will lower short-term rates to 3%. Currently, market expectations are that this loosening of the monetary policy will start at the end of 2023. We really don’t know what the Fed will do or when; however, given our model and meager inflation for the last six months, we believe that the Fed might start lowering rates BEFORE Dec 2023 as it is currently priced in the government bond markets.

Sources:

Yahoo Finance
Тading Economic

Disclaimer:

The articles, podcasts, and newsletters from Alaric Securities LLC solely represent the authors’ views affiliated with the company; they do not represent the perspectives of Alaric Securities LLC or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. They are provided solely for informative purposes and do not constitute recommendations for or against the purchase or sale of any security, digital asset (such as cryptocurrency), or other assets in any account. They are neither research reports, nor meant to be the foundation for any investing decisions. Any third-party information given does not represent the views of Alaric Securities LLC or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal, and past success does not assure future success.