Political risk map 2016
Aon plc (NYSE:AON), a leading global provider of risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, powered by Roubini Global Economics produced its 2016 Political Risk Map with the additional ability to predict the future financial strength of global economies, which reflect a country’s ability to repay its sovereign debts.
The report is now freely accessible through AON’s new, dedicated online portal, enabling those interested in the topic to examine past, current and future trends in global political risk.
The map examines political risk in 162 emerging economies, considering risks through nine risk icons (six in the print version), namely: exchange transfer, sovereign non-payment, political interference, supply chain disruption, legal & regulatory risk, political violence, risk of doing business, banking sector vulnerability and inability of government to provide stimulus.
The online portal allows users to drill into specific risks, territories and time periods, providing a comprehensive tool for those interested in understanding the impact of political risks on the global economy.
This year the map has the additional ability to predict the future financial strength of global economies using Roubini’s Shadow Credit Rating scores, which reflect a country’s ability to repay its sovereign debts.
An Improving Outlook
For the first time in three years, improvements in the political risk landscape far outweighed deteriorations. In fact, in 2016 the Political Risk Map counted eight upgrades, against half that many downgrades.
A slowing China and weaker commodity prices are responsible for increased political risk in both Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, although there is cause for cautious optimism in Argentina and Cuba.
In the Middle East and North Africa the oil drag deepens and continues to threaten domestic stability, heightening risk in the region. While in Asia Pacific, anti-corruption campaigns have helped to strengthen economic resilience and reduce political risk.